Nancy Pelosi is fighting for the Democrat majority in the House as well as her own legacy.
But the story may end in embarrassment.
That’s because Nancy Pelosi was shown this new polling data that could send her into retirement.
Democrats hoped the end of the coronavirus pandemic—brought about by vaccines developed under Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed—and the resulting economic boom would help the party defy political history and hang on to their majorities in the House and Senate in next year’s midterm elections.
But the Democrats are heading into the midterms with a historically narrow majority meaning the Republicans only need to flip six seats to wrest the Speaker’s gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s grip.
Despite Democrats’ hopes that they can ride an economic wave to victory next November, the political fundamentals of midterm elections as well as Donald Trump’s strength in the GOP leave Democrats facing a potentially toxic political environment in 2022.
Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg and Democracy Corps just released new polling numbers from the battleground states and districts that will determine the majorities in the House and Senate.
The polling data of 11 swing states and 13 “frontline” congressional districts found that despite the media’s false narrative, there was no civil war in the GOP as the party’s voters unified around Donald Trump and his “America First” agenda.
“We conducted a large, mostly cell phone survey with an oversample of Republicans in the 2022 battleground for the U.S. Senate, governorships, and House, and it is painfully clear Don-ald Trump, Lindsey Graham, and Kevin McCarthy know their party. The Trump loyalists who strongly approve of him are two-thirds of those who identify as, ‘Republican.’ And they are joined by the Trump aligned to form a breathtaking, three quarters of the party in the electoral battleground states and districts that will decide who leads the country,” the Democracy Corps polling memo read.
In a major warning sign to Democrats, the poll found Republican voters were much more engaged than Democrats in these key states.
“We were also surprised by how much Donald Trump’s loyalist party is totally consolidated at this early point in its 2022 voting and how engaged it is. Yes, they have pulled back from histor-ic presidential year levels: the percent scoring 10, the highest level of interest in the election, has fallen from 84 to 68 percent. But Democrats’ engagement fell from 85 percent to 57 per-cent. Republicans are following their political theater much more closely than are Democrats — producing an 11-point gap,” Greenberg wrote.
Greenberg warned Democrats were heading into a danger zone because the excitement of the electorate toward voting in 2022 matched that of the 2018 midterms which saw record turnout.
The GOP’s high level of engagement, expected high turnout and Donald Trump’s ability to shape the political narrative all pointed to a troubling midterm election for Democrats.
“And with such high early engagement of Republicans and white working class voters in this survey, it means the era of Donald Trump shaping the electorate is not over either,” Greenberg added.
After the 2018 election, Nancy Pelosi said she only planned to serve two terms as Speaker of the House.
2022 will likely be her last year running the House and quite possibly her last year in Congress.
In the event that Greenberg’s polling data holds up, Pelosi could be heading for the exits on the heels of a second midterm route.
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