Democrats held out hope that maybe the midterm elections would not turn out to be the disaster many thought.
But Democrats got some bad news.
A top pollster admitted this nightmare scenario spells doom for Democrats on Election Day.
In 2020 the polls were wrong.
Polls showed Joe Biden winning in a blowout, Democrats winning Senate races in Maine, North Carolina and Iowa, and padding their House majority by 15 to 20 seats.
All those estimates were wrong.
The presidential election came down to 45,000 votes across three states.
Republican senators won re-election in Maine, North Carolina and Iowa.
And it was the GOP that gained 14 seats in the House.
In a widely-read article New York Times pollster Nate Cohn revealed the polls in 2022 could be even more wrong than in 2020 due to the problem of nonresponse bias.
College-educated voters – who are realigning into the Democrat Party – are more likely to answer pollsters’ phone calls leaving surveys with too many respondents more likely to favor Democrat candidates.
Cohn wrote:
While nonresponse bias is challenging to prove, there was one possible marker of it in the New York Times/Siena College data in 2020: White registered Democrats were more than 20 percent likelier to respond to our surveys than white registered Republicans.
In our final wave of Senate and House polls in the last few days, that hallmark of nonresponse bias looks as if it’s back.
Overall, white registered Democrats were 28 percent likelier to respond to our Senate polls than Republicans — a disparity exceeding that from our pre-election polling in 2020.
Nate Cohn knows of what he speaks.
In 2020 The New York Times/Siena polls were some of the most inaccurate in the country as Cohn’s polls understated the support for Republican candidates in races across the country.
That boded ill for Democrats as the left tried to seize on good polling for Democrats in key gubernatorial and Senate elections.
NYT/Sienna 2020.
NV: NYT: Biden +6 / Actual: Biden +2.7 = 3.3% off.
AZ: NYT: Kelly +7 / Actual: Kelly +2.4 = 4.6% off.
GA: NYT: Sen: Tie / Actual: Perdue +1.8 = 1.8% off.
PA: NYT: Biden +6 / Actual Biden +1.2 = 4.8% off.So, pretty damn good poll for Lombardo/Lake. https://t.co/YceOaEQ4rX
— EJ (@Ejmiller25) November 1, 2022
In every election dating back to 2014 pollsters missed badly by painting too rosy a picture for Democrats in the battleground Senate races.
Cohn – who was at the forefront of the polling errors in the 2020 election – warned that Democrats may not be prepared for what is coming down the pike on Election Day.
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