A big change just happened in the 2020 Presidential Election.
All the experts never saw this coming.
And all hell broke loose when Donald Trump saw this major shift in the polls.
The fake news media centered on a narrative that Donald Trump is hopelessly behind in the polls and that Joe Biden is on the verge of a historic landslide victory.
But that reality is not reflected in the latest polling data.
Conservative talk show host Steve Deace pointed out how Trump is positioned just as he was in 2016 and that horse race head-to-head polling two weeks out is not predictive of the final result.
“Two weeks before the 2012 election, the RCP average showed Romney-Obama virtually tied. Obama went on to win by almost 4 points.” Deace added, “Two weeks before the 2016 election on October 24th, Donald Trump was at 42.3% in the RCP national polling average. Today is two weeks before the 2020 election, and he’s at 42.3% in the RCP national polling average.”
The IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the second most accurate poll in 2016.
Their latest poll showed Joe Biden only leading Donald Trump by two points, which represented a five point shift to Trump over the course of one week.
That narrow a lead is the danger zone for Biden because Hillary Clinton also won the popular vote by two points and yet Donald Trump still won the Electoral College.
Finally, HotAir.com’s Ed Morrissey analyzed the latest Gallup party affiliation polling which showed Republicans holding a one-point edge over Democrats which was a six-point shift since June.
Morrissey posted the previous Gallup splits from previous elections and even when Republicans won landslide victories in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, Democrats still outnumbered Republicans in the Gallup party ID poll.
2018: Republicans 29, independents 36, Dems 35, indie split 42/53
2016: R 27, I 36, D 31, I split 43/46
2014: R 26, I 39, D 32, I split 41/46
2012: R 30, I 33, D 35, I split 42/50
2010: R 29, I 36, D 32, I split 43/44
2008: R 28, I 37, D 33, I split 40/51
Morrissey also noted that when Democrats won elections in 2008, 2012 and 2018, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by five points.
“Democrats won a landslide in 2008, narrowly re-elected Barack Obama in 2012, and won the House back with a moderate-sized wave in 2018. In all three years, they had a +5 or better advantage over Republicans in the overall partisan split and at least an eight-point advantage in the indie split. Republicans won relatively big in 2014 with less favorable numbers than we see at the moment in Gallup’s partisan-ID polling in either mode,” Morrissey wrote.
The last time the electorate leaned Republican on Election Day and George W. Bush won re-election.
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