The entire political world was waiting to see how the special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District would play out.
Democrats and the media claimed the race would predict whether a blue wave would hit America in November.
And when all the votes were counted, no one could believe the shocking results.
Ohio’s 12th Congressional District had been held by a Republican since 1982 and President Trump carried the district by 11 points in 2016.
Pundits had set the expectations going into the race that a narrow Republican victory meant Democrats were fired up for November and a blue wave was on the horizon.
Polls had shown a close race that could go either way.
After a long night of vote counting that saw both candidates holding a narrow lead, Republican Troy Balderson eked out a victory by less than 1,800 votes over Democrat Danny O’Connor.
Democrats and the media jumped for joy.
Liberal journalists claimed O’Connor’s narrow defeat proved that the Democrats winning the midterm elections were set in stone.
CNN’s Chris Cillizza wrote:
The reality is that history, base enthusiasm and Trump’s unpopularity are all working for Democrats and against Republicans. If past is prologue, the question isn’t whether 2018 will be a good election for House Democrats but rather how good an election it will be. What Tuesday night showed us is that even in places where Trump (and Romney) won comfortably, Democrats can be very, very competitive.
Others joined the chorus.
All the reasons a Democratic wave appears over the horizon https://t.co/VGyIpTvsoc pic.twitter.com/wNnxwv7PVf
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) August 8, 2018
Blake, a left-wing fanatic who disguises DNC talking points as political “analysis,” even wrote Democratic morale was one of the big winners in Tuesday night’s contest.
NEW: Ohio-12 is still too close to call. Republicans are in shape to eke out a win by a wafer-thin margin in this deep-red district, which signals big trouble for the House majority.https://t.co/x8PhfG1SdN
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) August 8, 2018
But on the flip side, Republicans have won eight out of nine special elections since Donald Trump took office.
And Josh Holmes, former chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, noted Ohio’s 12th Congressional district was a perfect storm of challenges that made holding the seat much more difficult than the pundits claimed.
Holmes tweeted:
ELECTION THREAD: Way too many unsupported conclusions being drawn from last night’s election. In many ways, OH12 possessed the 3 most difficult obstacles for GOP to overcome in ’18: suburban support erosion, enthusiasm gap, vacancy. (1/3)
2/3 Many GOP districts with some variation of those 3 problems but OH12 had all 3. The +/- GOP less significant here because of the confluence of vulnerabilities. Yes GOP should win but turning out enough suburban GOP voters to win in the middle of August should not be discounted
Historically, the President’s party loses an average of 26 House seats in a midterm election.
And the Democrats need to flip just 23 to install Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.
That adds up to Republicans facing an uphill climb in November.
The GOP will have to defy historical norms to hold onto their majorities.
But Republicans will be running with a strong economy at their back.
And the one defining characteristic of the left is that Trump has driven them to insanity.
The fall campaign will be filled with radical leftists spouting off loony policy proposals such as abolishing ICE and supporting open borders.
Immigration has proven to be a motivating factor for the Republican base, so if the midterm campaign is fought over Donald Trump’s immigration agenda, there is a good chance the GOP base will be more motivated to turn out than pundits believed.
And that could stem the tide of Democratic gains and allow Republicans to hang onto their majorities.
We will keep you up to date on any new developments in the midterm elections and which party will control Congress as news breaks.
