The midterm election is five weeks away.
And the campaign picture is coming into focus.
Now Democrats got smacked by a political reality that will turn everything upside down.
The Pennsylvania Senate race is the lynchpin of Republicans’ and Democrats’ electoral hopes.
For months, Democrat Lt. Governor John Fetterman held a single-digit to low double-digit lead in the polls.
But something was going on beneath the surface in the ground.
GOP strategist Athan Koutsiouroumbas noted in an op-ed on Real Clear Politics that Republicans continued to outpace Democrats in terms of voters switching their party affiliation in the key suburban counties outside Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
In the Philadelphia suburb of Bucks County, voters are changing their party affiliation to Republican at a 2:1 margin over Democrats. Change-of-party trends continue to favor Republicans in the remaining three Philadelphia suburban counties. In the City of Philadelphia, Republicans are leading party-switchers by a 10-point margin over Democrats.
The trend is more pronounced in western Pennsylvania’s suburbs. Voters are switching parties to Republican at a greater than 2:1 margin in Butler County, outside of Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, the trend is 60/40 Republican.
The numbers in Philadelphia and its surrounding counties stand out as they help explain how Dr. Oz pulled into a statistical tie with Fetterman in the polls.
Republicans in the State House – joined by many Democrats – are preparing to impeach Soros-backed Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner over the spike in murders which critics attribute to the fact that Krasner is following the left-wing playbooks of refusing to prosecute violent crimes and pushing to let criminals out of prison.
The Oz campaign and outside GOP grounds spent millions on TV ads highlighting the fact that Fetterman subscribes to this soft-on-crime policy menu.
Fetterman supported ending life in prison for second-degree murder and also releasing one-third of convicts from the state’s jails.
The ad campaign showing voters Fetterman’s record on crime moved poll numbers as Fetterman tanked.
Pennsylvania Senate Polling Trends
Fox: Fetterman +11 –> Fetterman +4
F&M: Fetterman +13 –> Fetterman +4
Trafalgar: Fetterman +4 –> Fetterman +2
Emerson: Fetterman +4 –> Fetterman +2
✅ Average: 5 point polling shift towards Dr. Oz from August pic.twitter.com/O7lJxYJcOp
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 30, 2022
Democrats spent the last several months crowing over a supposed “summer surge” in the polls which had many in the corporate media predicting Democrats would defy historical trends and grow their congressional majority.
But as the calendar turned to fall and the GOP attacks on Fetterman’s soft-on-crime record cranked up the race is now a toss-up.
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