With under 30 days remaining until the Presidential Election it is crunch time for the campaigns.
As usual, the campaign will come down to a handful of electoral battlegrounds.
And now Democrats just got hit with some bad news in these four must-win states.
Polls show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in most of the swing states.
But the on-ground dynamics paint a different picture.
In four of the six states that Donald Trump won by less than five points in 2016, Republican efforts to register new voters outpaced the Democrats.
Left-wing election analyst Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report noted that in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Republicans were building a significant advantage on the ground that could tip the election in Donald Trump’s favor in a close race.
Wasserman explained that “In Florida, Republicans added a net 195,652 registered voters between this March’s presidential primary and the end of August, while Democrats added 98,362 and other voters increased 69,848. During the same period in 2016, Republicans added a net 182,983 registrants, Democrats 163,571 and others 71,982. In 2016, Trump prevailed in Florida by just 112,911 votes.”
Many election forecasters think whoever wins Pennsylvania will win the election, and given that Trump flipped the Keystone State red by 45,000 votes, the Republicans’ advantage in new voters could prove pivotal.
“In Pennsylvania, Republicans added a net 135,619 voters between this June’s primary and the final week of September, while Democrats added 57,985 and other voters increased 49,995. Between the April 2016 primary and the November 2016 general election, Republicans added 175,016 registrants, Democrats added 155,269 and others 118,989. That fall, Trump won the state by just 44,292 votes,” Wasserman added.
North Carolina is vital to any Republican’s path to victory.
And there is good news coming out of the Tar Heel State for the Trump campaign.
Wasserman reported that “In North Carolina, Republicans added a net 83,785 voters between this March’s presidential primary and the final week of September, while Democrats added 38,137 and other voters jumped 100,256. During the same period in 2016, Republicans added 54,157 registrants, Democrats added 38,931 and others 140,868. In 2016, Trump carried North Carolina by 173,315 votes.”
Arizona is a state that most pundits pegged as the most likely traditional red state to swing to Joe Biden.
And even though the state’s demographics shifted in the Democrats’ favor, Republicans shaved into the Democrats’ voter registration advantage.
“In Arizona, Democrats out-registered Republicans 31,139 to 29,667 on a net basis between the March presidential primary and the August state primary, compared to Democrats topping Republicans 66,523 to 53,185 over the same period in 2016. This data doesn’t include new registrations from late August or September, and Arizona’s registration deadline is Oct. 5,” Wasserman added.
Joe Biden and the Democrats shut down their campaign during the coronavirus pandemic.
But Republicans continued to knock on doors and register new voters.
The President’s campaign contends the pollsters are missing the new voters the Trump team will turn out on Election Day.
And the new voter registration numbers in key states give them a chance to prove the pollsters wrong.
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