The upcoming midterm elections could be a turning point in Trump’s presidency.
If Republicans hold their majorities, Trump will be able to continue to push his agenda, but if they don’t, things could get messy.
And Trump is now getting nervous after Democrats found a new way to win back the House, which will change everything.
A Political Target List
When political parties plan their strategy going into an election, the main part of their strategy is a target list.
That target list identifies the most competitive races and uses that information to allocate resources for campaigning.
Because in the end, a vote in Congress is a vote, no matter who wins.
So allocating resources to a race that is very unlikely to win, or one that is a virtual certainty isn’t an economical use of limited resources.
For Democrats looking to take back the House, going into 2018, they had 23 targeted districts that they would spend most of their time.
If they are able to win those districts, they will take back the House from Republicans for the first time since 2010.
But, like most plans on politics, that has changed.
From 23 To 15
That number has gone down to around 15 districts because of new information that has changed their priorities.
Some of those districts were proven as being not as competitive as previously thought, while others had new developments come up that changed the probable outcome of the race.
For one, a race in New Jersey for a seat being vacated by Rep. Frank LoBiondo has a Republican nominee that has been seen as exceptionally weak.
After statements perceived as racist came out from him, the state GOP pulled support from the Republican, making his prospect for victory very low.
Because of the number of targeted districts going down to 15 instead of 23, it allows Democrats to expend more money and resources at those 15 districts.
If they are able to win those 15 seats, without anything unexpected happening, they will take back the House.
And if they are to take back the House that will be very bad news for President Trump.
For one, it will make the possibility of impeachment much more likely.
While currently, those talks are going on, they have no real way to do anything with the House and Senate having a strong Republican majority.
But in reality, even with a majority in the House and Senate, impeachment is still a pipedream.
What a Democrat majority will really mean is that Trump will have much of his agenda stonewalled.
If Democrats stand unified in the House, they can block anything that Trump attempts to pass.
They have already been successful on a number of issues, like immigration, without even having a majority.
Only time will tell if they can pull off an electoral victory come November, but with these new developments, Donald Trump and his supporters have good reason to be nervous.
Do you think that Republicans will do well in the upcoming midterm elections?
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