Joe Biden’s presidential campaign is falling apart by the day.
But things just went from bad to worse.
And it’s all because Biden just got devastating news that changed everything.
Joe Biden’s presidential campaign is burning down.
And while the former Vice President for Barack Obama is trying to regain his momentum, he’s getting hammered with devastating news that left his campaign in shambles.
Biden was hoping to sweep the midwestern states in the Democratic primary and then set himself up to carry them in the general, ensuring he would win both the nomination and the presidency itself.
But Biden’s plan is starting to unravel.
The Iowa Starting Line reports, “Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are locked in a tie in Iowa atop the large field of Democrats running for the presidential nomination. An Iowa Starting Line/Change Research Poll of 615 likely Democratic caucus-goers that was conducted this past week, May 15 to May 19, found both Biden and Sanders garnering 24% among the Democratic candidates. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.9%.”
Biden cannot afford to lose Iowa. As New Hampshire is likely to go for Sanders, losing both of the early states would set Biden up for a very disappointing start to the Democratic primary and potentially crowd him out of the field early on.
If Sanders won both Iowa and New Hampshire, he would be well on his way to winning the nomination.
And it’s starting to look like that may just happen.
“In most national polling, Biden was blowing away the rest of the Democratic field in the immediate weeks after his announcement. A national CNN poll at the end of April had Biden up 24 points over the next closest Democrat; a Fox News national survey put Biden up 18 last week,” adds the Iowa Starting Line.
“But here in Iowa, it’s a much closer contest for Biden. Part of that is due to Sanders’ residual strength here from his 2016 run and remaining volunteer network. In this survey, 45% of those polled who said they caucused for Sanders in 2016 list him as their first choice in the caucus. Given the expansive primary field, retaining even just around half of his former support in the caucus may be enough to get to a win.”
For Biden’s campaign, Iowa is the definition of a must-win state. If he doesn’t carry the state, his odds of winning the nomination will plummet.
While Biden leads in many other early states, winning back-to-back early victories could be more than enough to set Sanders up to clinch the nomination.
And building momentum early on could be the difference between victory and defeat.
“It’s clearly a very different outcome from our most recent South Carolina poll, where Biden leads among all demographic groups except 18-34 year olds; in Iowa he and Sanders generally split that vote,” said 2020 Change principal pollster, Jane Loria.
“This is also a weaker result for Biden than our modeling (based on other polling we’ve done across the country) would have shown: that model would have had Biden up on Sanders by about 10 points or so,” said Jane.
We will keep you up to date with any new developments in this ongoing story.