The Democrat Party presidential nominating contest is about to be turned upside down.
Like in 2016, all the so-called “experts’” analyses are dead wrong.
And Joe Biden is a nervous wreck because this story he wanted to bury just exploded.
The dominant theme of the 2020 press coverage of the Democrat primary is that Joe Biden is a much more durable frontrunner than anyone anticipated.
Biden entered the race holding a sizeable lead over the rest of the field, and four months after he declared his candidacy, Biden still maintains a healthy 12-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average of all national polls.
The former Vice President’s enduring lead had many in the political press crafting a narrative that Biden was a stronger candidate than anyone thought.
But a true analysis of the polls and the Democrat primary reveals this is not the case.
In fact, the race is wide open and there is a credible argument to be made that in fact there is no frontrunner at all.
National polls do not decide a party nomination.
Individual states hold caucuses and primaries where candidates must win a certain number of delegates to clinch the nomination.
And four early states – Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina – serve as the springboard for a winning campaign.
The polls of the early states tell a very different story than the national polls.
CBS just released a series of polls in each of the four early nominating contests.
Only South Carolina showed a significant Biden lead.
All the other polls showed statistical ties with Biden narrowly trailing two of the three remaining early states.
CBS found Elizabeth Warren leading Biden by one in New Hampshire and Bernie Sanders besting Biden by two in Nevada.
The CBS poll of Iowa voters found Biden clinging to a three point lead over Sanders.
The early states – especially Iowa and New Hampshire – are a must win if any contender wants to secure a major party nomination.
But Biden’s strength in the first three states that vote – Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada – is nonexistent.
In fact, the makeup of each state’s electorate – mainly white and few black voters which is Biden’s strongest demographic – as well as the caucus formats in Iowa and Nevada which attract more ideologically committed activists – means Biden is likely the underdog for the nomination.
That could explain why Biden’s team recently held a conference call with the media where they downplayed the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire.
“Do I think we have to win Iowa? No,” a Biden advisor told the press on the call.
When campaigns lower expectations surrounding a contest, they are softening the ground to cushion a possible defeat.
Biden’s calling card is electability.
But if another candidate defeats Biden in the first two contests the press will call into question Biden’s chances.
That’s why his campaign is working so hard to downplay the significance of Iowa and New Hampshire.
In politics, it is far easier to explain away an expected loss than an unexpected defeat.
There is one other metric that shows Biden is not nearly the dominant frontrunner the media portrays.
In addition to aggregating polling averages, Real Clear Politics also tallies the average of all the lines bookmakers put on the Democrat Presidential nomination.
And the handicappers – the people that put their money where their mouth is – have Elizabeth Warren as a favorite by nine points to win the Democrat Party nomination.
Great American Daily will keep you up to date on any new developments in this ongoing story.
