America is still roughly a year and a half out from the next Presidential election.
But the campaigns on both sides are heating up day by day.
And with so much on the line, President Trump’s campaign just got news that if they lose this state in 2020, they’ll lose the whole election.
President Trump has decent chances of holding onto the White House in 2020.
For one thing, a sitting President always has numerous advantages that come with being in office, compared to the opposing party that seeks to defeat them.
No sitting President since George H.W. Bush has lost re-election, and only two Presidents going all the way back to Herbert Hoover have failed to win a second term in office if they sought it.
Trump has a massive cash advantage over his opponents as well.
The President enjoys strong support from his own party, and Democrats remain weak in several key swing states that Trump managed to flip in 2016.
All of this suggests that the President’s re-election chances are at least 50/50.
But there is danger on the horizon, and Trump’s campaign knows it.
The Hill reports, “There is a significant and growing probability that Texas will become the most consequential swing state in presidential and senatorial elections to come. A campaign in the Lone Star State could cost President Trump the White House next year, even if Texas voters will ultimately choose him.”
Texas, a state which at one point in time was among the most Republican-leaning in the nation, could be poised to become a battleground state next year.
Trump’s performance in the state was lackluster in 2016, only carrying it by around 9 points, compared to the landslides George Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney managed to win the state by from 2000 to 2012.
Furthermore, Ted Cruz nearly lost re-election to the US Senate in Texas to now Democratic presidential candidate Robert “Beto” O’Rourke. However, Cruz was massively outspent in the state and had to run for re-election in a year when Democrats managed to flip the House of Representatives.
Texas also voted by substantial margins for Republicans up and down the ballot last year, so Trump’s campaign does still have at least some built-in advantages in the state when he runs for re-election in 2020.
Even still, the warning signs are there for the Trump campaign.
“A powerful combination of demographic forces are propelling Texas from one of the reddest states in the union into a swing state. Democrats will likely make an outside play in Texas ahead of 2020, along with a full run for its projected 41 electoral votes. Texas also stands to gain three seats in Congress after the next census, making it a crucial state for both parties,” adds The Hill.
“Texas demographics today are strikingly similar to those of California in 1990, before Democrats began their seven to nothing streak of Golden State victories in presidential races. Like California in 1990, the Texas population currently hovers around 29 million and is changing rapidly in light of heavy immigration from Mexico. The second generation children of Mexican immigrants have played a major role in keeping California out of Republican reach. This same transformation is taking root in Texas.”
The way the Electoral College works out, should Trump manage to hold the state, his path to re-election will be much clearer.
But if Trump loses Texas in 2020, he almost certainly has no way to win the White House.
Do you think Trump can win Texas again in 2020?
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